Of course, NATO recently expanded to include Finland and Sweden. One of the outcomes that’s almost surprising is the degree to which the invasion led to the coalescing of NATO at a time when many people saw as moribund-and definitely frayed the edges. Has the invasion inspired other prominent powers, like China, to respond militarily in their own spheres? So there is still a geopolitical environment where there is less trust, where there is more of a risk of miscalculation, because Russia and Ukraine are still at war, and NATO is hovering at the edge without going over it into war but also because of ongoing concerns about proliferation more broadly, particularly with respect to Iran and, of course, North Korea, we could end up in a situation where more of these deadly weapons are out there as time goes on. Food insecurity feeds into civil unrest, and in places that are already experiencing that unrest, such as the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, things could get worse.
Besides energy concerns, are there other consequences of the war that could put pressure on the international order in a way that could ratchet up tensions?Īs many are aware, there is an ongoing food shortage happening as well-and that’s not going to get fixed in a hurry. We’re literally talking about just not having enough gas for European countries to keep warm. That could change over the winter when the energy needs of Europe increase significantly-and if Russia decides potentially to play the energy card. We’re still in an environment where that risk of miscalculation that I mentioned hasn’t gone away but we’re in a bit of a lull of sorts. and Russia to both reduce the arsenal … and engage in broader efforts to contain countries like Iran. If you look at virtually all of the agreements that were made over the years, they were partnerships between the U.S. In the overall context, though, the Russian invasion of Ukraine raised the geostrategic risk of miscalculation and, as NATO tries to implement sanctions without pushing Russia too far, that risk is still there.īut also takes Russia out of the role that it had played at the end of the Cold War as a co-partner in counterproliferation efforts. We’re always facing a risk where some of these weapons may be used-or the risk that they may end up in the wrong hands. We’re having this conversation in the context that, of course, there are still many nuclear weapons on the planet. From a national security standpoint, how does that change the possibility of nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine-or a broader conflict involving NATO breaking out? Military activity in Ukraine has really, reporting shows, started to become entrenched, suggesting a long-term war of attrition. His comments have been edited for brevity and clarity. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern Universityīut when the conflict got underway in late February, observers worried it would escalate into a broader world war between NATO and spoke with Stephen Flynn, founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Northeastern, about developments in Ukraine, how they are linked to the broader geopolitical landscape emerging in response to the war, and what the current threat level is for nuclear armed conflict and World War III. Kostas Research Institute for Homeland Security.
Stephen Flynn, professor of political science and founding co-director of the George J.
It’s a development that experts have long predicted after reports of Russian military failures revealed just how under-resourced and unprepared Putin’s army was for a ground war in Ukraine-as well as the strength of the Ukrainian resistance. The term describes a war characterized by the “sustained process of wearing down an opponent so as to force their physical collapse through continuous losses in personnel, equipment and supplies or to wear them down to such an extent that their will to fight collapses,” according to the International Encyclopedia of the First World War.
#Will there be world war 3 series
Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is, after a series of strategic missteps on the part of Vladamir Putin, becoming what many experts are calling a “ war of attrition.”
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